Manchester United's decline this season can be traced back to their 3-0 loss at Arsenal, writes Miguel Delaney. Can Sunday be another turning point?
As they sat in the dressing room, some key Manchester United players were not happy with the manager.
Long before the final whistle blew on a chastening afternoon at Emirates Stadium in October, United players were wondering why Louis van Gaal had played into Arsenal’s hands. Why hadn’t they done what they always do against Arsene Wenger’s side, and what had almost always proven resoundingly successful? Why hadn’t they sat deep and tried to hit Arsenal on the counter?
The feeling was that a huge mistake had been made and, for Van Gaal, it may well have had significance beyond the 3-0 scoreline on the day.
It’s not as though this misstep immediately sparked open mutiny, but it’s difficult not to think the defeat at Arsenal was the root of the player unrest that characterised a dismal December, and has effectively meant the Dutch manager will be leaving in the summer.
The question, then, with the benefit of so much time passed and such a deep change in performance level in the intervening months, is whether United’s last match against Arsenal was also the first time something fundamentally and fatally broke with Van Gaal’s reign.
Although it’s almost unthinkable now, there really was a point this season when Manchester United looked impressive - and when there was a great deal of hope about what might be possible for Van Gaal and his team.
It just happened to be in the build-up to their trip to Arsenal on October 4. United had gone into that game on the back of four successive wins in all competitions and three successive wins in the league - the last time they did either this season. It was not just about the results, though: it was also about the rousing nature of their play.
A 3-1 win over Liverpool on September 12 saw Anthony Martial announce himself to English football and also sparked something in United. They scored six over the next two league games, against Southampton and Sunderland, and would hit a total of 15 in the six matches leading up to Arsenal.
They travelled to the Emirates in assertive mood. In fact, given that Arsene Wenger’s side had just lost 3-2 to Olympiacos in the Champions League in calamitous fashion, it was understandable that there was a sense of confidence about Van Gaal.
However, this confidence simply meant that his side fell into a perfect trap because Arsenal played a perfect first 19 minutes. United tried to step out, and Wenger’s side - in particular Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil - just blew them away.
At 3-0 down after just 19 minutes, United were never going to get back into the game and in truth have never looked the same this season; it might well have been the campaign’s genuine turning point, and mostly because Van Gaal wouldn’t budge on his tactics.
Consider the figures of their season. Before that match, United had won nine of 12 games in all competitions and hit 22 goals; since, they’ve only won 10 of 27 games while losing seven, scoring just 33 goals. These are distinctive drop-offs: they’ve gone from a 75% win percentage to 37% and from 1.83 goals per game to 1.22.
This unmistakable downturn could well be a consequence of that fateful game against Arsenal and the impact it had on the Manchester United players.
Up until their trip to North London, and for a period afterwards, the United squad felt Van Gaal was authoritarian but actually liked the way he “kept them on their toes”, because it reminded them of Ferguson.
They were obviously willing to buy into anything that helped them win, but the manner of the Arsenal defeat began to erode some trust and meant that - even subconsciously - they couldn’t quite buy into Van Gaal in the same way; it created proper doubt, whereas previously there had only been a few questions.
The damaging nature of the defeat also indicated something that was to become a real issue for the players by December: Van Gaal’s dogmatic unwillingness to change, even when it seemed counter-productive not to do so.
If Van Gaal does set up the side in the logical way against Arsenal, and United get a result, it could potentially recharge their Champions League challenge. It would certainly cut the gap between those two sides, and between United and the top four. There would be renewed optimism, and a sense they can adapt to the circumstances of the season.
If they don’t, and they lose in even a vaguely similar manner, United could well be cut adrift. An aimless and discouraging season could become a plummeting and depressing one.
We’ll know a lot by the line-ups as the game starts. We could know everything we need to know by the time it finishes.
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